NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Independent candidate David Hatley is pointing to a poll his campaign commissioned that shows him in front in the northeast corner of the state, even as a separate statewide survey has Republican Marsha Blackburn holding a comfortable lead in the race for governor.
The Hatley survey, a text-to-web poll run Oct. 17 by GOTV Polling, part of FullPAC Inc., reached 762 people across five counties: Sullivan, Washington, Greene, Carter and Johnson. It put Hatley at 36.4 percent, Democrat Jerri Green at 29.5 percent and Blackburn at 24.9 percent; its stated error margin is plus or minus 3.6 points. The poll itself noted that the people who answered leaned Democratic.
The statewide picture looks very different. Spry Strategies surveyed 635 likely voters across Tennessee from Oct. 10 to 16 and found Blackburn at 43.5 percent, Green at 32 percent and Hatley at 11.9 percent. Ten percent were undecided. That poll carries a margin of error of about 3.9 points.
In the Spry results, Blackburn led in East, Middle and West Tennessee alike, including 43.2 percent to 29.6 percent over Green in the eastern part of the state. She also held a wide margin among rural voters. Independent Lauren Pinkston drew 1.4 percent statewide and about 1.2 percent in the Hatley poll.
The two surveys also differed in who took them. About 53 percent of the statewide respondents called themselves Republicans and 23 percent Democrats, and the results were weighted to match the makeup of likely Tennessee voters.
Beyond the horse race, the statewide poll found that 62.1 percent of Tennessee voters oppose building an AI data center near where they live, against 26.7 percent in favor. A plurality said the centers should keep building but pay local property taxes and meet environmental standards.
Spry also found voters highly engaged, with 91 percent saying they are extremely likely to cast a ballot in the Nov. 3 general election.
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